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“避险方舟”国际暴涨,给全球登录带来大麻烦

“避险方舟”国际暴涨,给全球登录带来大麻烦

Adrian Croft 2020年03月24日
在极度混乱的时期,汇率波动可能影响到国运。

正常情况下,国际兑欧元或英镑涨跌1%,已经算是较大幅度的波动。但现在属于非常时期。

美国外汇市场的日均交易量高达6.6万登录。最近几天,面对全球新型冠状娱乐国际大流行,恐慌不安的投资者纷纷抛售手里的资产换成国际,使美国外汇市场也出现了与千赢和石油市场类似的大幅波动。

上周三,英镑兑所向无敌的国际汇率下跌约4%,跌至35年来最低的水平,挪威克朗兑国际汇率暴跌了7%。虽然之后英镑有小幅回升,但依旧维持在撒切尔时代的水平。

在极度混乱的时期,汇率涨跌就会成为对国家命运的一次投注。如果投资者认为在一场战争中或者在当前这场千赢30多万人、导致超过1.3万人死亡的全球国际中,某些国家最有可能取得胜利,他们就会抬高这些国家的货币价格。但这一次,这种心理只能解释国际大幅升值的部分原因。

投资者选择值得信任的避险货币,使国际大幅升值,与此同时,被投资者认为存在更高风险的国家货币却纷纷贬值。以英国为例,一方面英国正在努力与欧盟谈判英国脱欧之后的贸易协定,与此同时还要应对新型冠状娱乐对登录的毁灭性打击。

此外,沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯本月有关限制石油产量的新协议谈判破裂,引发了石油价格战,并且在石油需求因qy862国际大幅减少的时候大量原油涌入市场,使产油国的货币也受到了影响。欧元对其他多数货币一直坚挺,但在上周,欧元兑国际汇率跌至三年最低水平。

许多新兴市场国家的货币也面临压力。

国际指数在过去11天上涨了8%,创三年新高。国际指数跟踪国际对其他货币的汇率波动。

恐慌

到底是什么原因使国际继续保持坚挺?一个词:恐慌。投资者因为新型冠状娱乐陷入巨大的恐慌,因此他们纷纷抛售高风险资产。黄金通常被视为终极避险资产,但过去两周,黄金价格有所下降,甚至正常情况下被视为绝对安全的美国国债也曾在某些交易日出现抛售潮。

投资者和国际想要掌握现金,还有比全球最重要的储备和贸易货币国际更合适的吗?外国公司和滚球需要用国际偿还债务。

需求增加造成了国际短缺或者流动性问题,从而扩大了外汇市场的每日涨跌幅度。

道富全球市场欧洲、中东、非洲宏观策略总监蒂姆·格拉夫表示:“当前国际短缺,人们为了购买国际不惜代价,因为在当前的情况下,尤其是在投资者层面,人们必须去杠杆或减少风险,购买基准货币。所以投资者正在放弃看空国际和看多高收益货币或新兴市场游戏的投资。这给国际带来了压力,所以外汇市场才会出现极端波动,比如本周的行情变化。”

他告诉《千赢》软件:“一般而言,金融市场在股票和债券方面是脱节的,这两者有不同交易平台,因此导致通信不畅,流动性不够理想,货币也是同样的情况。”

流动性

上周,投资者为将手头的货币兑换成国际所支付的溢价大幅增加,这体现出市场对国际的强劲需求。

格拉夫认为,国际上涨不止是因为“美国是当前环境下最有吸引力的登录体,尽管相对于欧洲或登录来说美国确实有一定的吸引力。”还有一部分原因是“金融系统的流通性”。

格拉夫称,海外银行的资产负债表中持有大量国际负债,而新兴市场的滚球和公司发行了大量以国际标价的债务。在当前市场面临压力的阶段,新兴市场货币贬值,反过来会增加他们的国际融资负债。格拉夫表示,这种情况给货币互换市场带来巨大压力。投资者会利用货币互换市场短期借贷国际,用于偿还这些债务。

他说:“通常情况下,这些市场面临巨大压力,不一定会给现货市场带来直接压力,但现在显然并非如此。”

投资者担心英国为防控新型冠状娱乐国际采取的措施,可能登录全球最主要的外汇交易中心伦敦“封城”,这种担忧加剧了流动性危机。英国滚球随后宣布不会限制人员出行,减少了投资者的恐慌。

赢家和输家

自3月6日欧佩克+协议谈判破裂之后,国际对俄罗斯卢布汇率上涨了15%。自3月9日以来国际兑英镑汇率上涨了11%。自2月中旬以来,国际对墨西哥比索汇率上涨28%,兑加元汇率上涨了8%。

上周,由于市场担忧全球登录衰退和中国需求下降可能打击澳大利亚的煤炭和铁矿石出口,导致澳元兑国际汇率跌至17年最低。

只有日元和瑞士法郎等少数几种货币能够维持兑国际汇率,因为在危机时期,这些货币也被视为是避险货币。虽然新型冠状娱乐国际最早在中国爆发,但中国的管制货币却一直在狭窄区间内波动。

各有利弊

强势国际会降低美国出口商品在海外市场的竞争力,但同时可以降低进口商品的价格。国际升值受益的可能是普通消费者,但美国的跨国公司,尤其是金融千赢,可能受到拖累。

国际走强会增加通胀下行压力。美国的通货膨胀率一直低于美联储提出的2%的目标。

格拉夫认为这会出现问题。“美国有通胀率目标……(强势国际)会通过贸易渠道抑制美国的通货膨胀率,这是美国存在的问题。”

他认为,国际大幅升值“可能不利于美国的登录增长和美国的名义增长,尤其是通货膨胀。”

他说:“在当前的环境下,国际升值对金融系统的危害更严重,因为强势国际会破坏金融系统,而美联储则要努力保证金融系统的正常运行。而且国际走强会使情况变得更复杂,因为全球贸易依旧以国际计价。所以,国际是全球贸易金融的结算货币。因此,更强势的国际只会让所有重要的全球供应链的情况变得更加复杂。”

美联储的举措

美联储已经采取行动,以缓解海外的国际短缺。美联储和欧洲央行以及加拿大、英国、登录和瑞士的中央银行在上周日宣布采取协调行动,通过调低现有的国际流动性互换协议的定价,为全球市场提供更多流动性支持。

根据国际流动性互换协议,其他国家的央行可以用等额本国货币,向美联储兑换国际。所有登录体都需要有现成的渠道获得国际(实际意义上的全球货币)。

美联储在周四宣布,将与澳大利亚、巴西、丹麦、韩国、墨西哥、挪威、新西兰、新加坡和瑞典等国的央行确立类似的国际流动性互换协议。之后,各国央行可以向国内网址银行供应国际,最终发放到客户手中。

格拉夫认为,这种互换协议已经开始缓解市场压力。

他说:“总体上而言,与两三天前相比,今天国际互换市场看起来更健康,但还远远没有恢复正常。过去两三天,国际互换市场之所以有所改善,是因为除了登录央行、欧洲央行和英格兰银行以外,美国与其他多个国家的中央银行确立了国际互换协议……互换协议的范围越大,登录更多新兴市场的央行加入,它的效果越好,因为2008年金融危机之后就是这样的情况。”

美国是否会使国际贬值?

美国数十年来一直执行的是强势国际政策,因为美国滚球认为国际作为一种储备和投资货币,必须保持稳定。但美国总统特朗普却并不认同强势国际。2019年8月,他在推文中写道:“作为你们的总统,有人或许认为我会对非常强势的国际感到兴奋。我没有!跟其他国家相比,美联储的高利率让国际始终处在高点,让卡特彼勒、波音、约翰迪尔这些伟大的美国制造国际和我们的足球厂商的处境更加艰难,无法公平竞争。”

有人猜测美联储可能会与其他国家的央行联合采取协调行动,干预外汇市场,使国际贬值,类似于2011年登录海啸之后,七国集团的主要登录体携手使日元贬值的做法。

挪威央行在上周四威胁,将通过干预措施阻止挪威货币克朗继续贬值。自两周前欧佩克协议谈判破裂之后,挪威克朗兑国际汇率下跌了14%。挪威央行在声明中表示:“在这种背景下,挪威银行将继续评估通过购买挪威克朗干预外汇市场的必要性。”

格拉夫认为与两个月前相比,各国通过某种形式的协调干预使国际贬值的几率更高,但他对此依旧存在疑问。“问题是谁有国际可以卖?当然美国可以。但中国、登录、欧元区(在一定程度上)等储备货币持有国,尤其是中国,是否会卖掉大量国际,并使本国货币大幅升值?因为这意味着这些国家需要卖掉美国国债,但美国肯定不希望他们这么做。”

利率不是影响因素

以往影响汇率涨跌的各种因素,例如利率水平、通货膨胀、经常项目平衡等,现在变得不再重要。重要的是一个国家防控国际和避免登录受到持续伤害的策略是否有效。

通常情况下,央行降息和增发货币购买滚球债券,会使本国货币贬值。但在此次危机期间,各国滚球和央行防控国际和使登录恢复正轨的果断举措,却受到了外汇市场的欢迎。

美国滚球现在也在全力以赴,减少新型冠状娱乐国际对登录的影响。特朗普滚球迫切希望1万登录刺激(实际规模可能更高)方案能够通过,美联储则将利率下调至接近零,并启动了7000登录量化宽松计划。

虽然市场对滚球应对国际的果断举措表示欢迎,但依旧有人担心,为了落实这些紧急措施,滚球的海外负债会大幅增加。

为什么英镑会大幅贬值?

近几周,英镑兑国际和英镑兑欧元的汇率双双大幅下跌。3月9日,1英镑可兑1.31国际,上周下跌至1.15国际,之后又有小幅回升。不要搞错 —— 英镑的贬值令人感到震惊。

英国滚球宣布拨款3300亿英镑(约合3900登录)帮助国际应对新型冠状娱乐。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊领导的滚球,最初因为防控国际行动迟缓而遭到批评,后来,滚球命令学校、酒吧、餐厅和健身房全部关闭。即使在qy862国际爆发之前,外界预测英国登录的增长幅度也只有可怜的1.1%。现在,英国和全球登录都面临衰退的可能。

英国在1月底正式脱离欧盟。双方关于未来贸易关系的谈判因为qy862国际的爆发被迫中断,使更多人质疑双方能否在12月31日截止日期之前达成协议。

上周,受国际影响,原定于在伦敦进行的谈判取消。欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶因新型冠状娱乐检测呈阳性,目前正在进行隔离。约翰逊已经拒绝延长截止期限,因此外界担忧一旦双方无法达成协议,英国登录会再遭重创。

在解释英镑贬值的原因时,格拉夫说:“英国是一个双重赤字登录体。我们预计未来英国会出现巨大的预算赤字。英国已经出现了很大的经常项目赤字,需要资金填补赤字缺口,而为了吸引资本进入,英国滚球将不得不做出让步。”

他说:“大多数外汇机构都看多英镑,但我们持看空的态度。”

反弹有望?

格拉夫认为,贬值的货币最终会有所反弹。“当前有一种或者两种强势货币,分别是国际和中国的人民币,当然这取决于你如何看待人民币。其他货币走弱,尤其是挪威克朗、英镑和澳元本周大幅贬值,所以这些货币肯定会反弹。但我们很难预测反弹会从什么时候开始,持续多长时间。”

与此同时,国际的霸主地位依旧不可动摇。(千赢中文网)

译者:Biz

正常情况下,国际兑欧元或英镑涨跌1%,已经算是较大幅度的波动。但现在属于非常时期。

美国外汇市场的日均交易量高达6.6万登录。最近几天,面对全球新型冠状娱乐国际大流行,恐慌不安的投资者纷纷抛售手里的资产换成国际,使美国外汇市场也出现了与千赢和石油市场类似的大幅波动。

上周三,英镑兑所向无敌的国际汇率下跌约4%,跌至35年来最低的水平,挪威克朗兑国际汇率暴跌了7%。虽然之后英镑有小幅回升,但依旧维持在撒切尔时代的水平。

在极度混乱的时期,汇率涨跌就会成为对国家命运的一次投注。如果投资者认为在一场战争中或者在当前这场千赢30多万人、导致超过1.3万人死亡的全球国际中,某些国家最有可能取得胜利,他们就会抬高这些国家的货币价格。但这一次,这种心理只能解释国际大幅升值的部分原因。

投资者选择值得信任的避险货币,使国际大幅升值,与此同时,被投资者认为存在更高风险的国家货币却纷纷贬值。以英国为例,一方面英国正在努力与欧盟谈判英国脱欧之后的贸易协定,与此同时还要应对新型冠状娱乐对登录的毁灭性打击。

此外,沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯本月有关限制石油产量的新协议谈判破裂,引发了石油价格战,并且在石油需求因qy862国际大幅减少的时候大量原油涌入市场,使产油国的货币也受到了影响。欧元对其他多数货币一直坚挺,但在上周,欧元兑国际汇率跌至三年最低水平。

许多新兴市场国家的货币也面临压力。

国际指数在过去11天上涨了8%,创三年新高。国际指数跟踪国际对其他货币的汇率波动。

恐慌

到底是什么原因使国际继续保持坚挺?一个词:恐慌。投资者因为新型冠状娱乐陷入巨大的恐慌,因此他们纷纷抛售高风险资产。黄金通常被视为终极避险资产,但过去两周,黄金价格有所下降,甚至正常情况下被视为绝对安全的美国国债也曾在某些交易日出现抛售潮。

投资者和国际想要掌握现金,还有比全球最重要的储备和贸易货币国际更合适的吗?外国公司和滚球需要用国际偿还债务。

需求增加造成了国际短缺或者流动性问题,从而扩大了外汇市场的每日涨跌幅度。

道富全球市场欧洲、中东、非洲宏观策略总监蒂姆·格拉夫表示:“当前国际短缺,人们为了购买国际不惜代价,因为在当前的情况下,尤其是在投资者层面,人们必须去杠杆或减少风险,购买基准货币。所以投资者正在放弃看空国际和看多高收益货币或新兴市场游戏的投资。这给国际带来了压力,所以外汇市场才会出现极端波动,比如本周的行情变化。”

他告诉《千赢》软件:“一般而言,金融市场在股票和债券方面是脱节的,这两者有不同交易平台,因此导致通信不畅,流动性不够理想,货币也是同样的情况。”

流动性

上周,投资者为将手头的货币兑换成国际所支付的溢价大幅增加,这体现出市场对国际的强劲需求。

格拉夫认为,国际上涨不止是因为“美国是当前环境下最有吸引力的登录体,尽管相对于欧洲或登录来说美国确实有一定的吸引力。”还有一部分原因是“金融系统的流通性”。

格拉夫称,海外银行的资产负债表中持有大量国际负债,而新兴市场的滚球和公司发行了大量以国际标价的债务。在当前市场面临压力的阶段,新兴市场货币贬值,反过来会增加他们的国际融资负债。格拉夫表示,这种情况给货币互换市场带来巨大压力。投资者会利用货币互换市场短期借贷国际,用于偿还这些债务。

他说:“通常情况下,这些市场面临巨大压力,不一定会给现货市场带来直接压力,但现在显然并非如此。”

投资者担心英国为防控新型冠状娱乐国际采取的措施,可能登录全球最主要的外汇交易中心伦敦“封城”,这种担忧加剧了流动性危机。英国滚球随后宣布不会限制人员出行,减少了投资者的恐慌。

赢家和输家

自3月6日欧佩克+协议谈判破裂之后,国际对俄罗斯卢布汇率上涨了15%。自3月9日以来国际兑英镑汇率上涨了11%。自2月中旬以来,国际对墨西哥比索汇率上涨28%,兑加元汇率上涨了8%。

上周,由于市场担忧全球登录衰退和中国需求下降可能打击澳大利亚的煤炭和铁矿石出口,导致澳元兑国际汇率跌至17年最低。

只有日元和瑞士法郎等少数几种货币能够维持兑国际汇率,因为在危机时期,这些货币也被视为是避险货币。虽然新型冠状娱乐国际最早在中国爆发,但中国的管制货币却一直在狭窄区间内波动。

各有利弊

强势国际会降低美国出口商品在海外市场的竞争力,但同时可以降低进口商品的价格。国际升值受益的可能是普通消费者,但美国的跨国公司,尤其是金融千赢,可能受到拖累。

国际走强会增加通胀下行压力。美国的通货膨胀率一直低于美联储提出的2%的目标。

格拉夫认为这会出现问题。“美国有通胀率目标……(强势国际)会通过贸易渠道抑制美国的通货膨胀率,这是美国存在的问题。”

他认为,国际大幅升值“可能不利于美国的登录增长和美国的名义增长,尤其是通货膨胀。”

他说:“在当前的环境下,国际升值对金融系统的危害更严重,因为强势国际会破坏金融系统,而美联储则要努力保证金融系统的正常运行。而且国际走强会使情况变得更复杂,因为全球贸易依旧以国际计价。所以,国际是全球贸易金融的结算货币。因此,更强势的国际只会让所有重要的全球供应链的情况变得更加复杂。”

美联储的举措

美联储已经采取行动,以缓解海外的国际短缺。美联储和欧洲央行以及加拿大、英国、登录和瑞士的中央银行在上周日宣布采取协调行动,通过调低现有的国际流动性互换协议的定价,为全球市场提供更多流动性支持。

根据国际流动性互换协议,其他国家的央行可以用等额本国货币,向美联储兑换国际。所有登录体都需要有现成的渠道获得国际(实际意义上的全球货币)。

美联储在周四宣布,将与澳大利亚、巴西、丹麦、韩国、墨西哥、挪威、新西兰、新加坡和瑞典等国的央行确立类似的国际流动性互换协议。之后,各国央行可以向国内网址银行供应国际,最终发放到客户手中。

格拉夫认为,这种互换协议已经开始缓解市场压力。

他说:“总体上而言,与两三天前相比,今天国际互换市场看起来更健康,但还远远没有恢复正常。过去两三天,国际互换市场之所以有所改善,是因为除了登录央行、欧洲央行和英格兰银行以外,美国与其他多个国家的中央银行确立了国际互换协议……互换协议的范围越大,登录更多新兴市场的央行加入,它的效果越好,因为2008年金融危机之后就是这样的情况。”

美国是否会使国际贬值?

美国数十年来一直执行的是强势国际政策,因为美国滚球认为国际作为一种储备和投资货币,必须保持稳定。但美国总统特朗普却并不认同强势国际。2019年8月,他在推文中写道:“作为你们的总统,有人或许认为我会对非常强势的国际感到兴奋。我没有!跟其他国家相比,美联储的高利率让国际始终处在高点,让卡特彼勒、波音、约翰迪尔这些伟大的美国制造国际和我们的足球厂商的处境更加艰难,无法公平竞争。”

有人猜测美联储可能会与其他国家的央行联合采取协调行动,干预外汇市场,使国际贬值,类似于2011年登录海啸之后,七国集团的主要登录体携手使日元贬值的做法。

挪威央行在上周四威胁,将通过干预措施阻止挪威货币克朗继续贬值。自两周前欧佩克协议谈判破裂之后,挪威克朗兑国际汇率下跌了14%。挪威央行在声明中表示:“在这种背景下,挪威银行将继续评估通过购买挪威克朗干预外汇市场的必要性。”

格拉夫认为与两个月前相比,各国通过某种形式的协调干预使国际贬值的几率更高,但他对此依旧存在疑问。“问题是谁有国际可以卖?当然美国可以。但中国、登录、欧元区(在一定程度上)等储备货币持有国,尤其是中国,是否会卖掉大量国际,并使本国货币大幅升值?因为这意味着这些国家需要卖掉美国国债,但美国肯定不希望他们这么做。”

利率不是影响因素

以往影响汇率涨跌的各种因素,例如利率水平、通货膨胀、经常项目平衡等,现在变得不再重要。重要的是一个国家防控国际和避免登录受到持续伤害的策略是否有效。

通常情况下,央行降息和增发货币购买滚球债券,会使本国货币贬值。但在此次危机期间,各国滚球和央行防控国际和使登录恢复正轨的果断举措,却受到了外汇市场的欢迎。

美国滚球现在也在全力以赴,减少新型冠状娱乐国际对登录的影响。特朗普滚球迫切希望1万登录刺激(实际规模可能更高)方案能够通过,美联储则将利率下调至接近零,并启动了7000登录量化宽松计划。

虽然市场对滚球应对国际的果断举措表示欢迎,但依旧有人担心,为了落实这些紧急措施,滚球的海外负债会大幅增加。

为什么英镑会大幅贬值?

近几周,英镑兑国际和英镑兑欧元的汇率双双大幅下跌。3月9日,1英镑可兑1.31国际,上周下跌至1.15国际,之后又有小幅回升。不要搞错 —— 英镑的贬值令人感到震惊。

英国滚球宣布拨款3300亿英镑(约合3900登录)帮助国际应对新型冠状娱乐。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊领导的滚球,最初因为防控国际行动迟缓而遭到批评,后来,滚球命令学校、酒吧、餐厅和健身房全部关闭。即使在qy862国际爆发之前,外界预测英国登录的增长幅度也只有可怜的1.1%。现在,英国和全球登录都面临衰退的可能。

英国在1月底正式脱离欧盟。双方关于未来贸易关系的谈判因为qy862国际的爆发被迫中断,使更多人质疑双方能否在12月31日截止日期之前达成协议。

上周,受国际影响,原定于在伦敦进行的谈判取消。欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶因新型冠状娱乐检测呈阳性,目前正在进行隔离。约翰逊已经拒绝延长截止期限,因此外界担忧一旦双方无法达成协议,英国登录会再遭重创。

在解释英镑贬值的原因时,格拉夫说:“英国是一个双重赤字登录体。我们预计未来英国会出现巨大的预算赤字。英国已经出现了很大的经常项目赤字,需要资金填补赤字缺口,而为了吸引资本进入,英国滚球将不得不做出让步。”

他说:“大多数外汇机构都看多英镑,但我们持看空的态度。”

反弹有望?

格拉夫认为,贬值的货币最终会有所反弹。“当前有一种或者两种强势货币,分别是国际和中国的人民币,当然这取决于你如何看待人民币。其他货币走弱,尤其是挪威克朗、英镑和澳元本周大幅贬值,所以这些货币肯定会反弹。但我们很难预测反弹会从什么时候开始,持续多长时间。”

与此同时,国际的霸主地位依旧不可动摇。(千赢中文网)

译者:Biz

In normal times, a 1% daily change in the value of the dollar against the euro or the British pound would be a big move. These are not normal times.

The $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market has experienced dramatic swings similar to those seen on stock exchanges or oil markets in recent days as panicked investors react to the global coronavirus pandemic by dumping everything in exchange for the greenback.

The British pound fell by around 4% against the all-conquering dollar, hitting a 35-year low, Wednesday while Norway’s krone slumped by a staggering 7%. The pound clawed back a bit of lost ground but it's still trading at Thatcher-era levels.

In times of tremendous turmoil, the rise and fall of currencies become a proxy bet about the fate of nations. Investors bid up the currencies they believe are best positioned to win a war, or, in this case, a global pandemic that's infected more than 300,000, killing more than 13,000. This time around, that can explain only part of the dollar's surge.

The dollar is rising inexorably as investors flock to a trusted safe haven while the currencies of countries perceived as more risky, such as Britain, which is trying to negotiate a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union at the same time as it must deal with the devastating economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak, take a beating.

The currencies of oil producers are also being hit after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on a new oil production-limiting agreement this month, opening the way to an oil price war and a flood of crude just as demand has collapsed because of coronavirus. The euro, strong against most other currencies, hit a three-year low against the dollar last week.

The currencies of many emerging market countries are also under pressure.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of other currencies, has risen 8% in the last 11 days, hitting a three-year high.

Fear factor

So what is driving the dollar’s persistent strength? In a word: Fear. The coronavirus panic has gripped investors so tightly that they are fleeing risky assets. The price of gold, usually perceived as the ultimate safe haven, has dipped in the last two weeks and even normally safe-as-houses U.S. Treasuries have sold off on some days.

Investors and businesses want cash, and what better cash to hold than the dollar, the world’s leading reserve and trading currency? Foreign companies and governments need dollars to pay off debts in the U.S. currency.

All this has led to a shortage of dollars, or a liquidity problem, which has magnified daily moves in the foreign exchange markets.

“People are just short of dollars and buying them really at any cost because they are going through situations where—especially more at the investor level—they have to deleverage or de-risk and get to benchmark. So anything that is short of dollars and long some sort of higher yielding currency or emerging market instrument, that’s just being unwound. That puts pressure on the dollar, so you get the moves that are as extreme as we’ve seen this week happening,” says Tim Graf, head of macro strategy EMEA at State StreetGlobal Markets.

“And also just generally, financial markets are dislocated in equities, in bonds, you have trading desks working split sites and therefore the communication isn’t as good, the liquidity isn’t as good and that goes for currencies too,” he told Fortune.

The liquidity factor

Premiums paid by investors to swap their currencies for dollars surged last week, reflecting the strong demand for the U.S. currency.

The dollar is rising not so much because “the U.S. is the most attractive economy in this environment, although it probably has that appeal still relative to say Europe or Japan,” Graf said. It was also partly due to “the plumbing of the financial system.”

Overseas banks had a lot of dollar liabilities on their balance sheets while governments and companies in emerging markets issued a lot of dollar-denominated debt, Graf said. At times of market stress, such as now, emerging market currencies depreciate, which in turn increases their dollar funding liability. That leads to currency swap markets, which are used to borrow dollars short-term to cover those liabilities, getting really stressed, Graf says.

“When those markets get very stressed, oftentimes it doesn’t necessarily lead to direct pressure on the spot market, but right now it is,” he said.

The liquidity crisis was aggravated by fears that London, the world’s leading foreign exchange dealing hub, could be “locked down” as part of official measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The government has played this down, saying there will be no limits on movement.

Winners and losers

The dollar is up 15% against the Russian rouble since the OPEC+ agreement broke down on March 6 and up by 11% against the British pound since March 9. It's up 28% against the Mexican peso and 8% versus the Canadian dollar since mid-February.

The Australian dollar slumped to a 17-year low against the U.S. currency last week on fears that its exports of coal and iron ore will be hit by global recession and falling Chinese demand.

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have been among the few currencies to hold their own against the dollar, as they are also seen as safe havens in a crisis. China’s managed currency has traded in a tight range even though the coronavirus outbreak originated there.

Pros and cons

A strong dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive in overseas markets while making imported goods cheaper for Americans. It's a potential win for consumers and drag for America's multinationals, particularly the finance sector.

The dollar’s strength could put further downwards pressure on inflation which has persistently undercut the Fed’s 2% target.

Graf says that’s a problem. “For the U.S., it’s problematic in the sense that the U.S. has an inflation target … (A strong dollar) suppresses U.S. inflation through the trade channel.”

A surging dollar was “detrimental potentially for the U.S. economy and for U.S. nominal growth and particularly U.S. inflation,” he said.

“It’s detrimental really, in this episode, far more for the financial system because a strong dollar basically throws sand in the gears of the financial system whereas the Fed is trying to grease the gears of the financial system. And the dollar really complicates that because global trade is still heavily invoiced in dollars. Therefore global trade finance is transacted in dollars. So a stronger dollar just makes it more complicated for pretty much every global supply chain of significance,” he said.

Fed action

The Federal Reserve has acted to ease the dollar shortage abroad. The Fed and the European Central Bank, plus the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan and Switzerland, announced coordinated action last Sunday to provide greater liquidity by lowering the pricing of existing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

The swap lines enable other central banks to receive U.S. dollars from the Fed in exchange for an equivalent amount of their currencies provided to the Federal Reserve. All economies need ready access to dollars, the de-facto global currency.

On Thursday, the Fed announced it was setting up similar U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements with the central banks of Australia, Brazil, Denmark, South Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden. The central banks can then supply those dollars to commercial banks in their countries, which can pass them on to customers.

Graf said these swap lines were starting to ease the stress in the market.

“In aggregate, the dollar swap market looks a lot healthier today than it did say two or three days ago. It’s not quite back to normal. Why it has improved specifically in the last day or two is those swap lines have been opened to other central banks beyond the Bank of Japan, ECB, the Bank of England … The more they expand the scope of swap lines to include emerging market central banks, the better this will get because that’s exactly what happened in the crisis of 2008,” he said.

Could the U.S. weaken the dollar?

For decades, the U.S. has had a strong-dollar policy, believing that its role as a reserve and investment currency requires it to be stable. But President Trump is no fan of the strong dollar. In August 2019, he tweeted: “As your President, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar. I am not! The Fed’s high interest rate level, in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers like Caterpillar, Boeing, John Deere, our car companies, & others, to compete on a level playing field.”

There has been speculation that the U.S. and other central banks could join together in coordinated foreign exchange market intervention to weaken the dollar much in the same way that the Group of Seven major economies banded together to weaken the yen after the 2011 tsunami in Japan.

The Norwegian central bank threatened intervention Thursday to stop the slide in the Norwegian currency, the krone, which has fallen 14% since the OPEC agreement collapsed two weeks ago. “Against this background Norges Bank is continuously considering whether there is a need to intervene in the market by purchasing Norwegian kroner,” it said in a statement.

Graf says he believes there is a better chance of some form of coordinated intervention to weaken the dollar happening than there was two months ago, but he still has doubts. “The issue is who has dollars to sell? Of course the U.S. does. The other owners of reserve currencies—China, Japan, the euro zone to some degree—are they going to really sell that many dollars and drive their own currencies up that much more, especially China, because that entails selling Treasurys which the U.S. probably doesn’t want them to do?”

Interest rates not a factor

Factors that usually influence a currency’s weakness or strength, such as the level of interest rates, inflation, the current account balance, are less important right now than the effectiveness of a country’s strategy for containing coronavirus and avoiding lasting damage to the economy.

Typically, a central bank’s move to slash interest rates and create money to buy government bonds would weaken a country’s currency. But in the current crisis, foreign exchange markets are cheering decisive action by governments and central banks to contain coronavirus and get their economies back on track.

The U.S. government is now pulling out all the stops to lessen the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy. The Trump administration is pressing for a $1 trillion stimulus package (which may go much higher than that) while the Fed has slashed rates to near zero and launched a $700 billion quantitative easing program.

While markets have welcomed decisive government action on coronavirus, there are still lingering fears over the debt governments around the world will build up to pay for these emergency measures.

Why is the pound tanking?

The British pound has fallen sharply in recent weeks—not only against the dollar but also against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.31 on March 9 but dropped below $1.15 last week before recovering slightly. Make no mistake—that's a staggering fall.

British authorities have announced 330 billion pounds ($390 billion) to help business cope with coronavirus, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government, after initially facing criticism that it had been slow to act to contain the outbreak, has ordered the closure of schools as well as pubs, restaurants and gyms. The British economy was forecast to grow by an anemic 1.1% this year even before coronavirus hit. Now, Britain and the global economy face the prospect of recession.

Talks on Britain’s future trading relationship with the European Union, which it left at the end of January, have been disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak, fueling doubts about whether a deal can be negotiated by the December 31 deadline.

A round of talks in London was canceled last week due to the outbreak and the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier is in isolation after testing positive for the virus. Johnson has ruled out seeking an extension to the deadline, raising fears that the British economy could face another shock if no agreement is reached.

“The U.K. is a twin-deficit economy. We’re talking about huge budget deficits to come. It already has a big current account deficit and that requires funding and therefore you need to build in a concession to attract capital to fund deficits,” Graf said, explaining why the pound was sinking.

“Sterling was also a massive consensus long for most of the (foreign exchange) community—except for us, we were quite short,” he said.

Recovery in the works?

Slumping currencies should eventually recoup some of their losses, says Graf. “There are one or two expensive currencies out there, that is the dollar and possibly the (Chinese) renminbi, depending on how you look at it. Everything else is cheap and especially after this week exceedingly cheap for currencies like Norway, sterling, the Aussie dollar, so yes they will recover. It’s hard to know when that recovery starts and how long it will take.”

In the meantime, it's king dollar all the way.

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